The Bears were 5-6 ATS a year ago and have a brutal Big 12 South schedule. However, I see this team covering more games than a year ago if their QB Robert Griffin is healthy. Griffin who tore his ACL is still recovering and did not participate in spring practice. However, he did take part in drills and is said to be ready for the fall.

Griffin can be one of the best in the country in terms of passing. He threw for 481 yards, 4 touchdowns and no interceptions in three games before getting injured. Without Griffin the offense is a little more one dimensional and was the third worst in the conference with just 343 yards total.

The defense not much better as they allowed 27 points per game in 2009 and sadly I don’t believe it will improve. If you are looking for value with this team I think the over is the best bet with this team as I believe many points will be put on the scoreboard for both sides of the ball.

Colorado Buffaloes (3-9 overall, 2-6 conference | 2009)
The biggest issue is deciding who their starting QB will be in 2009. That alone lets you know this team won’t be on the rise from what they did a year ago. However, Colorado is still a tough team to beat when they are at home. Just like any other team that is used to playing at high altitude. This team is likely to be large home dogs when Georgia, Baylor, Texas Tech, Iowa State and Kansas State visit. They lost 14-13 to the Bulldogs as 26.5 point favorites in 2006.

The defense showed some toughness last year, especially against the pass and was the primary reason they finished 6-6 ATS on the year. CB Jalis Brown returns as he defended 15 passes and picked off another two on the year.

Iowa State (7-6 overall, 3-5 conference | 2009)
Iowa State was 9-3 ATS despite finishing just 7-6 overall. It was their first bowl berth in the past 5 seasons and the team looks to improve on that in 2010. The Cyclones defense has the most improvement to make in 2010 as they allowed 21 points per game. That does not nearly tell the story as they were an easy team to run on and they gave up over 259 yards per game through the air.

On the bright side the offense returns many of the cores on offense including a solid offensive line that running back Alexander Robinson used to run for 1195 yards with a 5.2 ypc which was good enough for third in the conference. They still will fly under the radar and should be a good team to back when they are under dogs because of their ability to slow the game down with their rushing attack.

Kansas Jayhawks (5-7 overall, 1-7 conference | 2009)
After a disappointing season where they fired their head coach there is a lot of buzz in Kansas for their new coach, Turner Gill. Gill takes over a team that lost seven straight games to end the year and seemed like their players gave up on the coaching. Gill will first have to find the starting QB and he’ll have a young group to choose from most notably sophomore Kale Pick and redshirt freshman Jordan Webb.

The defense will move back to a 4-3 scheme in order to put more pressure on the frontline to stop the run. Kansas gave up 138 yards per game on the ground as well as 23 rushing touchdowns. I believe Gill is a solid coach from what he did at Buffalo but I would fade this team early and back them late when they get more value. Games against Kansas State and Texas A&M at home might be good spots.

Kansas State Wildcats (6-6 overall, 4-4 conference | 2009)
Daniel Thomas led the Big 12 in rushing yards with 1,265 and he’ll return to improve on his 11 touchdowns from a year ago. Another problem here is the question mark at QB, a problem that seems to be a trend in the Big 12. Carson Coffman is the front runner, but he was a year ago and started the season poorly vs. a non-conference schedule.

This team broke even at 5-5 ATS a year ago, but should improve on that mark. Look to fade them as they’ll likely be favorites on the road at Kansas who they have owned ATS as of late going 11-4 ATS in their last 15 meetings.

Missouri Tigers (8-5 overall, 4-4 conference | 2009)
The Tigers gave up 25 points per game last season as opponents picked apart the secondary for an average of more than 251 yards through the air. That might improve with many returners which fill out a senior laden depth chart including Aldon Smith who had 11.5 sacks last season.

More importantly they do have a QB in Blaine Gabbert who had 24 TD and 9 interceptions. Gabbert will have to improve his accuracy though as he completed less than 59% of his passes. He also will be without Danario Alexander who caught 113 passes for 1781 yards and 14 touchdowns. The running game is less than stellar and the young receivers will have to step up. Too many question marks with this team and I’d be hesitant to back this team early.

Nebraska (10-4 overall, 6-3 conference | 2009)
Nebraska lost their anchor on defense in defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. The offense is going to have to dramatically improve if the Huskers want to repeat as the Big 12 North champions. The offense averaged 25 points and ranked second to last in passing yards.
QB Zac Lee will be the starter but the guys behind him are athletic and full of talent in Cody Green and Taylor Martinez. I wouldn’t be shocked if one of these guys takes over. I believe the value will not be in your favor with Nebraska as they were a year ago when they went 9-5 ATS.

Oklahoma Sooners (8-5 overall, 5-3 conference | 2009)
A pick early for the BCS Championship was taken away from them early last year when they lost Sam Bradford with a shoulder injury again. They still won their bowl game and found what seems to be a QB in Landry Jones who takes over knowing he’s the guy with Sam Bradford gone for the NFL.

Jones will have some weapons in Demarco Murray at running back and Ryan Broyles 89 receptions 1120 yards and 15 TD’s returning for the 2010 season. If anything this offense should improve with the experience Jones got a year ago.

The defense one the other hand has a lot of shoes to fill on the defensive side of the ball. Ends Jeremy Beal and Frank Alexander will be the keys to the stop unit. Many will get a good look at how good this team is with early non-conference games against Florida State and Cincinnati.

Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-4 overall, 6-2 conference | 2009)
Last year’s expectations were not met due to off field troubles and suspensions as well as injuries. They went 5-6-1 ATS and are looking at a long year in my opinion as they try to mold a new starting QB in Brandon Weeden. Weeden does have some weapons in Kendall Hunter at running back and sophomore Tracy moore.

The defense looks really young this year. Most of the top talents from the defense that allowed 332 yards per game a year ago are gone. Oklahoma State had just 29 sacks a year ago and will have to improve on that number. I think the offense will grow up faster than the defense in what will likely be a year where the team will be on the edge of a bowl game.

Texas Longhorns (13-1 overall, 9-0 conference| 2009)
Talk about some bad luck when Colt McCoy got injured in the Championship game a year ago. However, there was a major bright side as we got to see QB Garrett Gilbert put into a role in which might be the biggest game of his career and he looked good.

Texas lost a lot of weapons on offense though and is still without a featured back moving into the season. The defense also lost many elite talents and will have to grow up quick. The front seven has the most question marks despite Kheeston Randall being a proven runs topper. In 2009 the Horns gave up less than 180 yards through the air and led the nation in interceptions. This secondary does bring back some returnees in Curtis Brown, Chykie Brown and Aaron Williams.

Texas A&M Aggies (6-7 overall, 3-5 conference | 2009)
Aggies were the worst defense in 2009 in the Big 12, but still made it to a bowl game against Georgia in which they lost 20-44 as +6.5 under dogs. They gave up 426 yards per game in 2009 and handed opponents an average of 33.5 points. The offense was one of the best in the conference that led them to their bowl game behind Jerrod Johnson who had 30 TD and just 8 interceptions a year ago.
Texas A&M can go toe to toe with just about anyone in the country as they averaged 33 points per game a year ago and return Jerrod Johnson along with both of his running backs who combined for 1600 yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground. If there is a slight improvement in the teams’ defense they could be a great play against the spread.

Texas Tech Red Raiders (9-4 overall, 5-3 conference | 2009)
Tommy Tuberville takes over as the head coach after the nasty firing of Mike Leach. I wouldn’t expect much of a change in philosophy the first year as this is still the team that Leach built and Tuberville is not stupid. Expect lots of passing and a QB battle between Taylor Potts and Steven Sheffield.

I think it may take a while, but Texas Tech should be back in a bowl game and a solid cover later in the season.